Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.094399 0.108168 0.123143 0.140625 0.160463 0.182260 0.208014
2026-02-01 0.069893 0.086918 0.106893 0.132011 0.162705 0.198946 0.244935
2026-02-08 0.054135 0.072646 0.095942 0.127309 0.168327 0.220024 0.289995
2026-02-15 0.042168 0.060877 0.086058 0.122239 0.172681 0.240270 0.337428
2026-02-22 0.035219 0.054496 0.082140 0.124362 0.186853 0.275488 0.410185
2026-03-01 0.027973 0.046325 0.074322 0.119697 0.190841 0.297407 0.468189
2026-03-08 0.022628 0.040004 0.068132 0.116370 0.196258 0.322242 0.534470
2026-03-15 0.018457 0.034756 0.062686 0.113250 0.201467 0.347533 0.605444
2026-03-22 0.016051 0.032066 0.061009 0.116109 0.216980 0.391660 0.713685
2026-03-29 0.013587 0.028762 0.057653 0.115411 0.226197 0.426525 0.811451
2026-04-05 0.011818 0.026439 0.055686 0.116926 0.239666 0.470795 0.932442
2026-04-12 0.010369 0.024467 0.054037 0.118760 0.254019 0.518715 1.067124
2026-04-19 0.008494 0.021222 0.049306 0.113743 0.254511 0.541400 1.159133
2026-04-26 0.006847 0.018110 0.044250 0.107098 0.250536 0.554774 1.235068
2026-05-03 0.005703 0.015938 0.040867 0.103539 0.252651 0.581108 1.342197
2026-05-10 0.004739 0.013981 0.037589 0.099595 0.253234 0.604329 1.446460
2026-05-17 0.004223 0.013097 0.036777 0.101512 0.267957 0.661216 1.634436
2026-05-24 0.003538 0.011560 0.033963 0.097797 0.268318 0.685274 1.750783
2026-05-31 0.003007 0.010336 0.031723 0.095151 0.270922 0.715077 1.885412
2026-06-07 0.002566 0.009268 0.029686 0.092650 0.273468 0.745153 2.025354
2026-06-14 0.002336 0.008828 0.029390 0.095068 0.289816 0.812525 2.269207
2026-06-21 0.002055 0.008136 0.028179 0.094537 0.297820 0.859444 2.467029
2026-06-28 0.001855 0.007674 0.027594 0.095824 0.311369 0.923290 2.719394